Methodology
We predict your future race times based on completed time of
any one race and the median multiplier of users who have finished the race based on historical
results. The resulting value is called Race Median Multiplier (RMM) and is calculated for every
year.
The RMM is most accurate when we have more participants that
completed the two races being analyzed. Currently, the 2021 Silver Rush 50 MTB and the 2021
Leadville Trail 100 MTB have the most participants finishing both races - 244. There are many races
that have only one person that completed both races, so this prediction is not going to be very
accurate at all. An example of this is the 2021 Silver Rush 50 and the 2021 Barn Burner (Bronco) -
only one person finished both races, producing a weak RMM.
Example - we took the finish times of all participants who
completed both the 2021 Silver Rush 50 MTB
and the 2020 Leadville Trail 100 MTB race (there were 244 in total), and determined how much longer
the 100 mile race took in comparison to the 50 mile race. When we analyzed this data set, we
determined that the Race Median Multiplier (RMM) for these two races is 1.8. That is, it took 1.8
times longer to complete the 100 mile race than it did the 50 mile race.
Below are the RMMs for past races:
| 2023 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2023 Leadville 100 MTB & 2023 Leadville Stage Race
|
108
|
0.9
|
very high
|
|
2023 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2023 Leadville Stage Race
|
33
|
1.5
|
moderate
|
|
2023 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2023 Leadville 100 MTB
|
227
|
1.7
|
extremely high
|
| 2022 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2022 Austin Rattler MTB & 2022 Tahoe Trail MTB
|
3
|
1.0
|
low
|
|
2022 Austin Rattler MTB & 2022 Wilmington Whiteface MTB
|
2
|
1.0
|
low
|
|
2022 Austin Rattler MTB & 2022 Lutsen 99er
|
5
|
1.1
|
low
|
|
2022 Austin Rattler MTB & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB Pro
|
1
|
1.6
|
low
|
|
2022 Austin Rattler MTB & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
31
|
1.8
|
moderate
|
|
2022 Austin Rattler MTB & Crusher in the Tushar 2022
|
5
|
1.2
|
low
|
|
2022 Austin Rattler MTB & 2022 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
4
|
1.5
|
low
|
|
2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB & 2022 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
98
|
0.9
|
high
|
|
2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB Pro & 2022 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
5
|
0.9
|
low
|
|
2022 Tahoe Trail MTB & 2022 Lutsen 99er
|
3
|
1.1
|
low
|
|
2022 Tahoe Trail MTB & Crusher in the Tushar 2022
|
16
|
1.1
|
moderate
|
|
2022 Tahoe Trail MTB & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
102
|
1.6
|
very high
|
|
2022 Tahoe Trail MTB & 2022 Wilmington Whiteface MTB
|
2
|
1.0
|
low
|
|
2022 Tahoe Trail MTB & 2022 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
12
|
1.5
|
moderate
|
|
2022 Tahoe Trail MTB & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB Pro
|
9
|
1.7
|
low
|
|
Crusher in the Tushar 2022 & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
44
|
1.5
|
moderate
|
|
2022 Leadville Silver Rush MTB & 2022 Tahoe Trail MTB
|
3
|
1.0
|
low
|
|
Crusher in the Tushar 2022 & 2022 Lutsen 99er
|
3
|
1.1
|
low
|
|
2022 Leadville Silver Rush MTB & 2022 Lutsen 99er
|
6
|
1.2
|
low
|
|
2022 Leadville Silver Rush MTB & 2022 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
31
|
1.6
|
moderate
|
|
2022 Leadville Silver Rush MTB & 2022 Austin Rattler MTB
|
9
|
1.0
|
low
|
|
2022 Leadville Silver Rush MTB & 2022 Wilmington Whiteface MTB
|
2
|
0.8
|
low
|
|
Crusher in the Tushar 2022 & 2022 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
18
|
1.3
|
moderate
|
|
2022 Leadville Silver Rush MTB & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
188
|
1.8
|
extremely high
|
|
2022 Leadville Silver Rush MTB & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB Pro
|
5
|
1.9
|
low
|
|
Crusher in the Tushar 2022 & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB Pro
|
49
|
1.5
|
moderate
|
|
2022 Leadville Silver Rush Run & 2022 Leadville Trail 100
|
77
|
2.8
|
high
|
|
2022 Lutsen 99er & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
74
|
1.5
|
high
|
|
2022 Lutsen 99er & 2022 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
16
|
1.3
|
moderate
|
|
2022 Lutsen 99er & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB Pro
|
4
|
1.5
|
low
|
|
2022 Life Time Leadville Trail Marathon & 2022 Leadville Trail 100
|
76
|
4.7
|
high
|
|
2022 Life Time Leadville Trail Marathon & 2022 Leadville Silver Rush Run
|
95
|
1.8
|
high
|
|
2022 Wilmington Whiteface MTB & 2022 Lutsen 99er
|
9
|
1.1
|
low
|
|
2022 Wilmington Whiteface MTB & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
60
|
1.8
|
high
|
|
2022 Wilmington Whiteface MTB & Crusher in the Tushar 2022
|
1
|
1.2
|
low
|
|
2022 Wilmington Whiteface MTB & 2022 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
5
|
1.6
|
low
|
|
2022 Wilmington Whiteface MTB & 2022 Leadville Trail 100 MTB Pro
|
3
|
1.7
|
low
|
| 2021 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2021 Austin Rattler RUN & 2021 Silver Rush 50 Run
|
4
|
2.3
|
low
|
|
2021 Austin Rattler MTB & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
28
|
1.8
|
moderate
|
|
2021 Austin Rattler MTB & Crusher in the Tushar 2021
|
1
|
1.1
|
low
|
|
2021 Austin Rattler MTB & 2021 Tahoe Trail MTB
|
2
|
1.0
|
low
|
|
2021 Austin Rattler MTB & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
2
|
1.6
|
low
|
|
2021 Austin Rattler RUN & 2021 Leadville Trail 100 Run presented by La Sportiva
|
5
|
6.2
|
low
|
|
2021 Barn Burner (Bronco) & 2021 Silver Rush 50 MTB
|
1
|
1.6
|
low
|
|
2021 Barn Burner (Cowboy) & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
1
|
2.1
|
low
|
|
2021 Barn Burner (Bronco) & 2021 Tahoe Trail MTB
|
2
|
1.4
|
low
|
|
2021 Barn Burner (Bronco) & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
1
|
2.6
|
low
|
|
2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Trail 100 MTB & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
71
|
0.9
|
high
|
|
2021 Tahoe Trail MTB & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
5
|
1.5
|
low
|
|
2021 Tahoe Trail MTB & Crusher in the Tushar 2021
|
6
|
1.1
|
low
|
|
2021 Tahoe Trail MTB & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
98
|
1.7
|
high
|
|
2021 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2021 Austin Rattler MTB
|
10
|
1.1
|
low
|
|
2021 Silver Rush 50 MTB & Crusher in the Tushar 2021
|
1
|
1.4
|
low
|
|
2021 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2021 Tahoe Trail MTB
|
4
|
1.0
|
low
|
|
2021 Silver Rush 50 Run & 2021 Leadville Trail 100 Run presented by La Sportiva
|
70
|
2.7
|
high
|
|
Crusher in the Tushar 2021 & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
48
|
1.5
|
moderate
|
|
2021 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
198
|
1.8
|
extremely high
|
|
Crusher in the Tushar 2021 & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
9
|
1.2
|
low
|
|
2021 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2021 Stages Cycling Leadville Stage Race
|
21
|
1.5
|
moderate
|
|
2021 Leadville Trail Marathon & 2021 Austin Rattler RUN
|
5
|
0.9
|
low
|
|
2021 Leadville Trail Marathon & 2021 Leadville Trail 100 Run presented by La Sportiva
|
69
|
4.9
|
high
|
|
2021 Leadville Trail Marathon & 2021 Silver Rush 50 Run
|
105
|
1.8
|
very high
|
| 2019 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2019 Barn Burner (Cowboy) & 2019 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
2
|
2.5
|
low
|
|
2019 Barn Burner (Cowboy) & 2019 Leadville Stage Race
|
1
|
1.9
|
low
|
|
2019 Barn Burner (Bronco) & 2019 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
1
|
3.1
|
low
|
|
2019 Barn Burner (Bronco) & 2019 Leadville Stage Race
|
3
|
2.6
|
low
|
|
2019 Leadville Trail 100 MTB & 2019 Leadville Stage Race
|
119
|
0.9
|
very high
|
|
2019 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2019 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
250
|
1.8
|
extremely high
|
|
2019 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2019 Leadville Stage Race
|
40
|
1.6
|
moderate
|
|
2019 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2019 Barn Burner (Bronco)
|
2
|
0.6
|
low
|
|
2019 Leadville Silver Rush 50 Run & 2019 Leadville Trail 100 Run
|
97
|
2.7
|
high
|
|
2019 Lutsen 99er & 2019 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
1
|
1.9
|
low
|
|
2019 Leadville Trail Marathon & 2019 Leadville Trail 100 Run
|
109
|
5.9
|
very high
|
|
2019 Leadville Trail Marathon & 2019 Leadville Silver Rush 50 Run
|
170
|
2.2
|
extremely high
|
| 2018 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2018 Century Link Barn Burner (Bronco) & 2018 Lutsen 99er
|
1
|
1.8
|
low
|
|
2018 Century Link Barn Burner (Bronco) & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
1
|
2.7
|
low
|
|
2018 Century Link Barn Burner (Bronco) & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Stage Race
|
3
|
2.5
|
low
|
|
2018 CenturyLink Leadville Trail 100 MTB & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Stage Race
|
122
|
0.9
|
very high
|
|
2018 CenturyLink Silver Rush 50 Run & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Trail 100 Run
|
87
|
2.5
|
high
|
|
2018 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
260
|
1.7
|
extremely high
|
|
2018 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2018 Lutsen 99er
|
6
|
1.2
|
low
|
|
2018 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Stage Race
|
33
|
1.5
|
moderate
|
|
2018 Lutsen 99er & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
72
|
1.5
|
high
|
|
2018 Lutsen 99er & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Stage Race
|
14
|
1.3
|
moderate
|
|
2018 CenturyLink Leadville Trail Marathon & 2018 CenturyLink Silver Rush 50 Run
|
126
|
1.9
|
very high
|
|
2018 CenturyLink Leadville Trail Marathon & 2018 CenturyLink Leadville Trail 100 Run
|
102
|
4.9
|
very high
|
| 2017 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2017 Leadville Trail 100 MTB & 2017 Leadville Stage Race
|
99
|
0.9
|
high
|
|
2017 Silver Rush 50 Run & 2017 Leadville Trail 100 RUN
|
69
|
2.5
|
high
|
|
2017 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2017 Lutsen 99er
|
9
|
1.3
|
low
|
|
2017 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2017 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
234
|
1.7
|
extremely high
|
|
2017 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2017 Leadville Stage Race
|
28
|
1.4
|
moderate
|
|
2017 Lutsen 99er & 2017 Leadville Stage Race
|
10
|
1.2
|
low
|
|
2017 Lutsen 99er & 2017 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
81
|
1.4
|
high
|
|
2017 Leadville Trail Marathon & 2017 Leadville Trail 100 RUN
|
73
|
4.9
|
high
|
|
2017 Leadville Trail Marathon & 2017 Silver Rush 50 Run
|
110
|
1.9
|
very high
|
| 2016 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2016 Leadville Trail 100 MTB & 2016 Leadville MTB Stage Race
|
97
|
0.9
|
high
|
|
2016 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2016 Leadville MTB Stage Race
|
32
|
1.5
|
moderate
|
|
2016 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2016 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
251
|
1.7
|
extremely high
|
|
2016 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2016 Lutsen 99er
|
7
|
1.2
|
low
|
|
2016 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2016 Barn Burner (Bronco)
|
1
|
0.5
|
low
|
|
2016 Lutsen 99er & 2016 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
65
|
1.4
|
high
|
|
2016 Lutsen 99er & 2016 Leadville MTB Stage Race
|
9
|
1.3
|
low
|
|
2016 Leadville Trail Marathon & Leadville Trail 100 Run 2016
|
82
|
4.8
|
high
|
| 2015 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2015 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2015 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
250
|
1.8
|
extremely high
|
|
2015 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2015 Lutsen 99er
|
3
|
1.2
|
low
|
|
2015 Lutsen 99er & 2015 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
58
|
1.4
|
high
|
|
Leadville Trail Marathon 2015 & Leadville Trail 100 Run 2015
|
78
|
4.9
|
high
|
| 2014 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2014 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2014 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
244
|
1.7
|
extremely high
|
|
2014 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2014 Lutsen 99er
|
2
|
1.1
|
low
|
|
2014 Lutsen 99er & 2014 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
39
|
1.3
|
moderate
|
|
2014 Leadville Trail Marathon & Leadville Trail 100 Run 2014
|
71
|
4.8
|
high
|
| 2013 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2013 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2013 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
259
|
1.7
|
extremely high
|
|
Leadville Trail Marathon 2013 & Leadville Trail 100Mi Run 2013
|
77
|
4.8
|
high
|
| 2012 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2012 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2012 Leadville Trail 100 MTB - Singlespeed
|
2
|
1.9
|
low
|
|
2012 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2012 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
228
|
1.8
|
extremely high
|
| 2011 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2011 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2011 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
115
|
1.8
|
very high
|
|
Leadville Trail Marathon 2011 & LRS Leadville Trail 100 Run 2011
|
47
|
4.7
|
moderate
|
| 2010 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2010 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2010 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
136
|
1.8
|
very high
|
| 2009 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2009 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2009 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
128
|
1.8
|
very high
|
| 2008 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2008 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2008 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
101
|
1.8
|
very high
|
| 2007 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2007 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2007 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
84
|
1.8
|
high
|
| 2006 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2005 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2006 Silver Rush 50 MTB
|
61
|
1.0
|
high
|
|
2005 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2006 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
42
|
1.8
|
moderate
|
|
2006 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2006 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
67
|
1.8
|
high
|
| 2004 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2004 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2004 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
55
|
1.8
|
high
|
| 2003 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2003 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2003 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
64
|
1.8
|
high
|
| 2002 Events |
Finishers of Both Races |
RMM |
Accurancy |
|
2002 Silver Rush 50 MTB & 2002 Leadville Trail 100 MTB
|
32
|
1.9
|
moderate
|